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According to Spectrum News, “Housing affordability ranked as the third biggest issue for millennials, fourth for Gen Xers and sixth for Baby Boomers.” HousingWire said: “More than 90% of Gen Z adults said that housing affordability is their No. 1 issue heading into the presidential election this fall.” Both of those were June 2024 reports.
As the math previously provided on the MHProNews Masthead demonstrated, solutions to the affordable housing crisis must be inherently affordable. Over 5 decades of federal or state subsidies for costly housing haven’t solved the housing affordability crisis and obviously never will. The problem is getting worse.
‘How do you retire if rent is $8,500?’ Orlando real estate agent Freddie Smith asked in a TikTok video earlier this year. That is what Smith says the rent will be as young adults now approach their retirement. There is a proven answer that won’t bankrupt taxpayers, but first, let’s understand the problems.
@fmsmith319How will Millennials and Gen Z retire in renters economy? ??? original sound – Freddie Smith
“My biggest concern with our country turning into a renters’ economy is: how will the millennial and Gen Zers retire comfortably if they don’t own a house and are going to have to rent forever?” Agent Smith’s and the Federal Reserve’s math indicates rental costs are 4.3 times higher in 2024 than in 1994.
Projecting a similar 4.3-times increase thirty years into the future, rent would be about $8,500 monthly for today’s young adults as they near retirement.
Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman (VT-D) said homelessness is the canary in the coal mine for our economic, moral, and political policies (6.12.2023).
Here are more vexing facts.
- Homelessness in Florida is “rampant” and “growing.”
- States with theMost Homeless (2024): California (171,521) · New York (74,178) · Florida (25,959) Washington (25,211) · Texas (24,432) · Oregon (17,959).
- “New York, Vermont, and Oregon have the highest rates of homelessnessacross the 50 states.”
- While drugs or alcoholism may be a factor in homelessness, the lack of affordable housing is the biggest factor. Some 53 to 60 percent of the homeless are employed. Indeed, some who become homeless may turn to drugs or alcohol to cope with their plight.
A lack of affordable housing is costing our economy about two trillion dollars annually. So said Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (RI-D). Whitehouse said that in support of a Democratic plan he curiously admitted wouldn’t solve the crisis.
In the U.S. House, Representative Ilhan Omar (MN-D) is pitching a trillion-dollar plan that also won’t solve the problem.
Omar’s bill would authorize construction of 12 million new public housing and privately owned rental units. Estimates on the number of housing units needed vary. 6 to 10 million units needed is plausible. With more births than deaths plus immigration – legal immigrants plus illegal border jumpers – Rep. Omar may have a point that 12 million units may be needed.
The Ledger thoughtfully published an op-ed about 6 months ago that cited this statement.
- “Right now, in almost no market in this country, can a [conventional] homebuilder build a house that is affordable for a first-time homebuyer,” National Association of Home Builders CEO Jerry Howard said on Fox Business. “We can’t do it. The costs that are on us make it impossible.”
MSN, Yahoo News, and Planetizen are some aggregators and news sources that republished or plugged that Ledger op-ed.
Not long after that, Deseret News invited a longer and focused set of facts behind existing federal law and the “enhanced preemption” enforcement solution to the housing crisis using inherently affordable modern manufactured homes. Thanks to media coverage, awareness has incrementally increased.
Public officials have not yet budged.
Polk County, FL reportedly has the highest percentage of mobile and manufactured homes in the Florida. U.S. Census data indicates that Florida has one of the highest percentages of mobile and manufactured homes in the U.S. Based on Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) generated HMDA data Polk County, FL is the number three county in the U.S. for manufactured home loans. Fresh data reveals some 1,273 loans for an average amount financed of $168,695.99 were originated. Many of those loans would be land/home packages.
The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) says Florida is the #2 state in the U.S. for new manufactured home shipments.
Those facts obviously haven’t hurt conventional housing values, as numerous studies, the Urban Institute citing FHFA data, and HUD have repeatedly demonstrated that manufactured homes and conventional housing appreciate side-by-side.
Arguably among the takeaways from that array of linked facts and insights is this. Conventional site-built houses, multifamily housing, tiny houses, accessory dwelling units (ADUs), modular homes, prefab homes, 3D printed housing, container houses, and manufactured homes are all needed. Barring a dubious mass exodus from the U.S. of millions of souls who’ve entered the country in the past 3½ years (or prior to the current administration), the U.S. will need millions of housing units.
As the quote from former NAHB CEO Howard above reminds us, conventional builders have already said they can’t achieve the price points or volume needed.
So, as noted earlier, all kinds of new construction types are needed to meet the needs. However, without millions of new manufactured homes, the affordable housing crisis can’t be solved. Nothing else will make the “affordable housing” math work. HUD researchers indicated they have reviewed 50 years of political promises by both major parties. HUD’s Regina Gray said professionals from nations around the world come to the U.S. to better understand the wonders of American manufactured housing.
The facts and math are clear. To avoid forever renting and homelessness, we need more affordable housing that doesn’t require taxpayer subsidies. The laws needed to make this happen already exist.
In Congressional testimony, MHARR member Edward Hussey said: “Following 12 years of study and analysis including the recommendations of the National Commission, Congress enacted the 2000 law…”
A widely bipartisan Congress passed what became the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 signed into law by then President Bill Clinton (D).
Zoning is a post-production issue. It is odd then, that the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and the Florida Manufactured Housing Association don’t have on their website the nearly magic words “enhanced preemption” over local zoning barriers?
By contrast, MHARR has pages of references to enhanced preemption on their website.
A prominent, and arguably notorious, MHI member (MHP Funds) is Frank Rolfe, who has been spotlighted in an apparently negative way by the Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP). The satirical, salty language laced, and viral video hit produced by HBO’s Last Week Tonight with John Oliver cited that research but other sources too.
Ironically, Rolfe has ripped MHI multiple times and public officials including by saying: “So don’t tell me “we can’t solve affordable housing” because the correct statement is “we don’t want to solve affordable housing”. There are too many special interests – both inside and outside the government – to ever let that happen.”
Mainstream media, earnest affordable housing advocates, and public officials who sincerely want to solve the problem, instead of merely posturing as elections approach, need to routinely expose and then fix this nightmare for millions that is costing our nation about $2 trillion a year in lost productivity.
“The National Coalition for the Homeless estimates as many as 40%-60% of people experiencing homelessness nationwide are employed.” So said the Council for Homelessness in “Myths and Facts about Homelessness.
About 5½ years have passed since MHLivingNews published “Why is Seattle Dying?” on 2019/04/07. It said in part:
- “Public officials and housing advocates need to take a fresh look at the connections between affordable manufactured homes and a healthier society.”
- “It could all be boiled down to a stark choice between people living on sidewalks, parks, cars, tents, or cardboard boxes vs. living in a federally regulated manufactured home that are properly sited and installed. Those manufactured homes should be protected and embraced, as Seattle is perhaps only beginning to learn late in the game.”
- “But in that mix is the need to enforce existing laws.”
The balance of that article is arguably as or more relevant now as it was then. Among the illustrations in that report is the one below, per Trulia. They say that it isn’t bragging if something is factually true. When you source information from across the left-right spectrum, weed out the nonsense, and present information accurately it is proven to stand the test of time.
5.5 years ago, today, or years into the future, when good existing laws aren’t routinely enforced, the evidence demonstrates the following. So-called “forever renters” face homelessness in the U.S. record numbers. Even with more federal spending, homelessness increased per HUD’s own data.
So, sadly, unless this vexing and avoidable pattern is changed swiftly, the odds are good that this trend has or will impact someone that you know. The solution is ironically simple. Stop listening to promises made by public officials or candidates that rely upon a murky future. Enforce good existing laws. ###
Editor’s note: TARK has provided several edits to the above. Sometimes, this writer (who is the publisher) wants it his own way. Any glitches above are my own responsibility. My thanks to TARK for some useful catches.
Postscript.
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Postscript 2) MHLivingNews is pro-manufactured housing but advises potential home buyers to shop carefully and avoid doing business with so-called predator firms. Few manufactured home websites other than MHLivingNews and our MHProNews sister site provide as much information and evidence about concerns regarding unjust and potentially illegal business practices attributed to specific manufactured home firms. The following are just some examples. Search this site, or our sister site, by company or organization name to learn more.
Postscript 3) Shopping tips are found in the videos with transcripts, graphics, and information found linked below.
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Mobile Home and Manufactured Home Living News explores the good, bad, and ugly realities that keep the most proven form of affordable home ownership under-appreciated and misunderstood. MHLivingNews provides third-party research and other resource collections and reports not found on other sites. We also provide thought provoking analysis that are designed to open minds and hearts. This is the widely acknowledged best source for authentic news on mobile and manufactured home living, as well as the policies that impact this segment of housing that provides 22 million Americans with good, surprisingly appealing living.
On our MHProNews sister-site and here on MHLivingNews, we lay out the facts and insights that others can’t or won’t do. That’s what makes our sister site and this location the runaway leaders for authentic information about affordable housing in general, the politics behind the problems, and manufactured homes specifically.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News through the lens of manufactured homes and factory-built housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHLivingNews.com.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
Connect on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach
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