manufacturedhomelivingnews.com Manufactured Home Living News
On October 12, 2023 the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a new report entitled “The Affordable Housing Crisis Grows While Efforts to Increase Supply Fall Short.” The GAO also recently stated: “The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) leads housing efforts at the national level” and “Manufactured homes—homes that are built in factories—can be an affordable option for some, including lower-income homebuyers.” Per the GAO website: “What GAO Does,” “GAO provides Congress, the heads of executive agencies, and the public with timely, fact-based, non-partisan information that can be used to improve government and save taxpayers billions of dollars. Our work is done at the request of congressional committees or subcommittees or is statutorily required by public laws or committee reports, per our Congressional Protocols.”
Inflation. Rising interest rates. Paychecks that routinely fail to keep pace with the rising cost of living, including the cost of housing. These are clear and present risks to the American Dream of Homeownership.
As the purportedly nonpartisan GAO pointed out, “Manufactured homes—homes that are built in factories—can be an affordable option for some, including lower-income homebuyers.”
Before jumping into the manufactured housing data that follows, it is helpful to know what the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), both via X-posts (formerly Twitter) said.
Housing starts grew 7% in September to an annual rate of 1.36 million, 7.2% lower than the same time last year. Single-family home starts were up 3.2% to an annual rate of 963,000. https://t.co/NVQdAZOrfA #realestate #housing #economy pic.twitter.com/FyyBjRCmRr
— NAHB ? (@NAHBhome) October 18, 2023
Not only does NAHB not hide their numbers, they arrange to report their data via news interviews such as the one in the example below.
NAHB CEO Jim Tobin, with a great appearance on Fox Business today, explained the complexities facing first-time home buyers and the dire warnings flashing in the #realestate market. https://t.co/3IglRKLq2x
— NAHB ? (@NAHBhome) October 17, 2023
From the National Association of Realtors (NAR), are the following X-posts (previously known as “tweets). Note that NAR breaks down the information they provide in several ways that gives them an opportunity to communicate information to various market segments (first time buyers, investors, cash buyers, etc.).
Instant Reaction: Mortgage Rates, October 19, 2023. “Since the first week in September, home buyers have faced weekly increases in mortgage interest rates. Today’s release at 7.63% shows they are close to the historical average since 1971 of 7.74%.” https://t.co/4dil5OyfWl pic.twitter.com/JMarceanqj
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) October 19, 2023
First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales in September; Individual investors purchased 18% of homes; All-cash sales accounted for 29% of transactions; Distressed sales represented 1% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 21 days. #NAREHS pic.twitter.com/8xRCNR2Vxo
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) October 19, 2023
Note that NAR’s Lawrence Yun is practically begging for more housing starts. Again, the information is broken down in a manner that makes it easy for certain groups to relate to the information.
“For the third straight month, home prices are up from a year ago, confirming the pressing need for more housing supply,” Yun said. #NAREHS
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) October 19, 2023
Total housing inventory registered at the end of September was 1.13 million units, up 2.7% from August but down 8.1% from one year ago (1.23M). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.4-month supply at current sales pace, up from 3.3 months in August and 3.2 months in September ’22. #NAREHS
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) October 19, 2023
The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $394,300, an increase of 2.8% from September 2022 ($383,500). All four U.S. regions posted price increases. #NAREHS pic.twitter.com/pokBEPoxaB
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) October 19, 2023
“As has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability continue to hamper home sales,” said NAR’s Lawrence Yun. “The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.” #NAREHS
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) October 19, 2023
Year-over-year, sales dropped 15.4% (down from 4.68 million in September 2022). #NAREHS pic.twitter.com/Km9yEQC0zd
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) October 19, 2023
Total existing-home sales waned 2.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in September. #NAREHS pic.twitter.com/gfxOiWwrqK
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) October 19, 2023
MHProNews provided some information on the above from NAR earlier this week as provided by the Wall Street Journal. That report unpacks what the data could mean for growth oriented manufactured housing professionals and affordable housing seeking consumers, IF certain corrective steps were taken.
But for whatever reasons, it seems that the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) is unable to get good federal laws enforced. Part of what the GAO report and analysis, linked here, unpacks is the troubling history of manufactured housing lending in the 21st century. “Credit (financing) is the lifeblood of housing,” said former Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies fellow Eric Belsky. Per MHI’s Modern Homes Development, Belsky also said (circa 2000) that “there are multiple reasons to expect manufactured housing to do better than site built housing in the [current] decade.”
For the past few months, MHProNews and MHLivingNews has been doing periodic tests using the Bing AI search tool instead of Google. Let’s note in passing that as an informed researcher on this topic, so far, Bing’s AI appears to offer a superior result to Google. That said, this inquiry was made to Bing AI on 10.20.2023 at about 10:41 AM ET.
> “Eric Belsky purportedly said “there are multiple reasons to expect manufactured housing to do better than site built housing in the decade.” circa 2000 can you confirm the source(s) for that remark?”
Here is Bing’s AI response.
According to the web search results, the source for that remark is a report titled “The Future of Manufactured Housing” by Eric Belsky, who was then the Executive Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University. The report was published in May 2000 by the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) in its now defunct Modern Homes Development magazine12. The exact quote from the report is:
“There are multiple reasons to expect manufactured housing to do better than site built housing in the decade ahead. First, manufactured housing has a significant cost advantage over site built housing. Second, manufactured housing has improved its quality and broadened its market appeal by offering larger and more amenity-laden homes. Third, manufactured housing producers have become more vertically integrated and have developed relationships with lenders that could facilitate innovation in inventory finance and retail lending. Fourth, manufactured housing has made strides in overcoming regulatory barriers at the state and local level, although much more needs to be done. Fifth, demographic trends favor manufactured housing since it has a strong presence in rural areas and in the South, where population growth is expected to be concentrated.”12
I hope this helps you to confirm the source(s) for that remark?
Learn more:
Total National HUD Code Manufactured Home Production by Year from 1995 to 2022, plus Year-to-Date Information for 2023.
1995 – 344,930
1996 – 363,345
1997 – 353,686
1998 – 373,143
1999 – 348,075
2000 – 250,366
2001 – 193,120
2002 – 165,489
2003 – 130,815
2004 – 130,748
2005 – 146,881
2006 – 117,373
2007 – 95,752
2008 – 81,457
2009 – 49,683
2010 – 50,056
2011 – 51,618
2012 – 54,881
2013 – 60,228
2014 – 64,334
2015 – 70,544
2016 – 81,136
2017 – 92,902
2018 – 96,555
2019 – 94,615
2020 – 94,390
2021 – 105,772
2022 – 112,882
The Washington, D.C. based Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) maintains a free publicly available monthly reports on new manufactured home construction, based on data collected for HUD. MHARR’s is the largest known publicly available collection for such information. On this date, 10.17.2023, the most recent monthly report is for August 2023 new manufactured housing production and shipments. MHARR said the following regarding the latest year-to-date totals.
“…HUD Code manufactured housing industry year-over-year production declined again in August 2023. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 8,670 new homes in August 2023, a 19.1% decrease from the 10,722 new HUD Code homes produced in August 2022. Cumulative production for 2023 is now 58,692 homes, a 27% decrease from the 80,431 homes produced over the same period during 2022.”
Dividing that year-to-date 2023 data by 8, there is a monthly average of 7336.5 new manufactured homes built in 2023. If that monthly average production of 7336.5 was maintained, then manufactured housing production could finish the year at some 88,038 new manufactured homes. Glancing at the data in Part I above, or the summary graphic further below in Part II, that means that manufactured housing production levels will be at their lowest point since 2016.
To paint the picture of what it is that has fallen so sharply, the following collage reflects several HUD Code manufactured homes. Yes, that 2 level (2 ‘story’) Cape Code style home is also a manufactured home, and that staircase going up in the picture at the right led to a fully finished upper level. That home is about 2400 finished square feet.
Note: to expand this image to a larger or full size, see the instructions
below the graphic below or click the image and follow the prompts.
Shock?!
A journalist recently called MHProNews/MHLivingNews to discuss a manufactured housing linked topic. When this manufactured home industry expert and writer told that reporter that manufactured housing was producing less than 30 percent of the homes that were being built in the later part of the 1990s, that journalist expressed shock. That reporter had toured a modern manufactured home and was clearly impressed with the home. Given the affordable housing crisis, it was difficult for that reporter to believe that manufactured housing had dropped so sharply. But the numbers above speak for themselves.
MHLivingNews has published and maintained the largest known collection of third-party research on modern manufactured housing. Reports like the one below include some of those researched items.
The question is, why is manufactured housing sliding once again? Why is it that Harvard’s Eric Belsky previously predicted that manufactured housing would surpass conventional housing in production, but instead, manufactured homes have slumped since?
Part of the reason is tied to financing, as the GAO report indicated. Other researchers have made similar points. Financing and zoning barriers are the two biggest reasons given for what manufactured housing has been underperforming.
When basic “shade and shelter” manufactured homes and more residential style manufactured homes are far more affordable, but also are also appealing, durable, appreciate like conventional housing does (and in some states, appreciate faster than conventional housing), it becomes puzzling indeed that manufactured housing should be selling significantly fewer manufactured homes in 2023 than were sold in 2022.
The following data was provided to MHProNews as a “tip” from a Manufactured Housing Executives Council (MHEC) connected source. One of the oddities in manufactured housing is that MHI hides this information behind a “members only” login. But why? NAHB, NAR, and MHARR (see further below) provide such information to the public freely every month and have for years.
Table 12: Manufactured Home Shipments
MHI’S MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT | AUGUST 2023
Table 12: Manufactured Home Shipments
| AUGUST 2023 | Year through AUGUST 2023 | ||||||
| 2022 | 2023 | % Change | 2022 | 2023 | % Change | ||
| New England
Connecticut |
10 | 15 | 50.0% | 82 | 146 | 78.0% | |
| Maine | 94 | 101 | 7.4% | 576 | 552 | -4.2% | |
| Massachusetts | 23 | 9 | -60.9% | 128 | 135 | 5.5% | |
| New Hampshire | 31 | 44 | 41.9% | 224 | 249 | 11.2% | |
| Rhode Island | 5 | 6 | 20.0% | 11 | 18 | 63.6% | |
| Vermont | 27 | 22 | -18.5% | 113 | 97 | -14.2% | |
| Subtotal (region) | 190 | 197 | 3.7% | 1,134 | 1,197 | 5.6% | |
| Middle Atlantic New Jersey | 51 | 28 | -45.1% | 346 | 303 | -12.4% | |
| New York | 203 | 139 | -31.5% | 1,414 | 1,059 | -25.1% | |
| Pennsylvania | 180 | 163 | -9.4% | 1,397 | 1,188 | -15.0% | |
| Subtotal (region) | 434 | 330 | -24.0% | 3,157 | 2,550 | -19.2% | |
| East North Central
Illinois |
109 | 132 | 21.1% | 841 | 772 | -8.2% | |
| Indiana | 307 | 211 | -31.3% | 1,630 | 1,358 | -16.7% | |
| Michigan | 520 | 324 | -37.7% | 3,303 | 2,334 | -29.3% | |
| Ohio | 215 | 160 | -25.6% | 1,342 | 1,140 | -15.1% | |
| Wisconsin | 62 | 114 | 83.9% | 530 | 524 | -1.1% | |
| Subtotal (region) | 1,213 | 941 | -22.4% | 7,646 | 6,128 | -19.9% | |
| West North Central
Iowa |
58 | 33 | -43.1% | 381 | 328 | -13.9% | |
| Kansas | 82 | 61 | -25.6% | 559 | 366 | -34.5% | |
| Minnesota | 84 | 59 | -29.8% | 587 | 397 | -32.4% | |
| Missouri | 146 | 124 | -15.1% | 1,196 | 828 | -30.8% | |
| Nebraska | 22 | 30 | 36.4% | 184 | 140 | -23.9% | |
| North Dakota | 42 | 21 | -50.0% | 225 | 131 | -41.8% | |
| South Dakota | 48 | 29 | -39.6% | 250 | 207 | -17.2% | |
| Subtotal (region) | 482 | 357 | -25.9% | 3,382 | 2,397 | -29.1% | |
| South Atlantic
Delaware |
45 | 31 | -31.1% | 266 | 243 | -8.6% | |
| District of Columbia | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | – | |
| Florida | 907 | 614 | -32.3% | 6,143 | 4,984 | -18.9% | |
| Georgia | 390 | 338 | -13.3% | 3,326 | 2,421 | -27.2% | |
| Maryland | 10 | 6 | -40.0% | 145 | 76 | -47.6% | |
| North Carolina | 565 | 524 | -7.3% | 4,456 | 3,450 | -22.6% | |
| South Carolina | 406 | 368 | -9.4% | 3,634 | 2,525 | -30.5% | |
| Virginia | 148 | 107 | -27.7% | 901 | 717 | -20.4% | |
| West Virginia | 91 | 83 | -8.8% | 790 | 530 | -32.9% | |
| Subtotal (region) | 2,562 | 2,071 | -19.2% | 19,661 | 14,946 | -24.0% | |
(continued)
| AUGUST 2023 | Year through AUGUST 2023 | ||||||
| 2022 | 2023 | % Change | 2022 | 2023 | % Change | ||
| East South Central
Alabama Kentucky Mississippi Tennessee |
771
308 251 316 |
880
286 272 278 |
14.1%
-7.1% 8.4% -12.0% |
5,544
2,625 2,692 2,619 |
3,610
1,906 1,727 1,891 |
-34.9%
-27.4% -35.8% -27.8% |
|
| Subtotal (region) | 1,646 | 1,716 | 4.3% | 13,480 | 9,134 | -32.2% | |
| West South Central
Arkansas Louisiana Oklahoma Texas |
140
353 266 1,856 |
145
356 175 1,397 |
3.6%
0.8% -34.2% -24.7% |
1,367
3,679 1,793 14,485 |
989 2,324
1,336 9,791 |
-27.7%
-36.8% -25.5% -32.4% |
|
| Subtotal (region) | 2,615 | 2,073 | -20.7% | 21,324 | 14,440 | -32.3% | |
| Mountain
Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming |
279
188 66 40 81 170 29 44 |
179
48 38 34 45 126 25 21 |
-35.8% -74.5%
-42.4% -15.0% -44.4% -25.9% -13.8% -52.3% |
1,800 973 429
287 515 1,172 225 203 |
1,626 466
226 224 313 796 158 143 |
-9.7% -52.1%
-47.3% -22.0% -39.2% -32.1% -29.8% -29.6% |
|
| Subtotal (region) | 897 | 516 | -42.5% | 5,604 | 3,952 | -29.5% | |
| Pacific
Alaska California Hawaii Oregon Washington |
4
352 0 164 140 |
0
244 0 96 118 |
-100.0%
-30.7% – -41.5% -15.7% |
17
2,689 1 1,136 1,107 |
6
2,059 0 816 857 |
-64.7%
-23.4% -100.0% -28.2% -22.6% |
|
| Subtotal (region) | 660 | 458 | -30.6% | 4,950 | 3,738 | -24.5% | |
| Subtotal (U.S.) | 10,699 | 8,659 | -19.1% | 80,338 | 58,482 | -27.2% | |
| Canada/Mexico/Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | – | |
| * Destination Pending | 16 | 2 | -87.5% | 70 | 216 | 208.6% | |
| Total Home Shipments | 10,715 | 8,661 | -19.2% | 80,408 | 58,698 | -27.0% | |
* Destination Pending figures represent finished home inventory. It is assumed that all inventory is shipped in the following month.
Note that in an outreach to MHI leaders about this tip, they and their outside attorneys did not respond.
Next, the following is how Washington, D.C. based MHARR provided that information. Note that this was previously published by MHProNews at this link here, including an analysis and commentary.
Severe Manufactured Home Production Decline Continues in August 2023
Washington, D.C., October 5, 2023 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), HUD Code manufactured housing industry year-over-year production declined again in August 2023. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 8,670 new homes in August 2023, a 19.1% decrease from the 10,722 new HUD Code homes produced in August 2022. Cumulative production for 2023 is now 58,692 homes, a 27% decrease from the 80,431 homes produced over the same period during 2022.
A further analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from January 2023 — with monthly, cumulative, current year (2023) and prior year (2022) shipments per category as indicated — are:
The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a Washington, D.C.- based national trade association representing the views and interests of independent producers of federally-regulated manufactured housing.
— 30 —
Obviously, the information is formatted quite differently by MHI and MHARR. But when the various columns are added up, the results are quite similar or the same. One difference is caused by “Destination Pending” which MHI admits that they don’t track after the reporting month. Since MHI is reporting information by state and regions. That said, in essence the destination pending category and disclaimer means that MHI is admitting that their information won’t be completely accurate on the state-by-state level.
MHARR’s data is simple to read and understand. By contrast, MHI’s is in some ways more complex, although the bottom lines are similar. Note that MHI makes this information available to state associations, which may or may not republish in their newsletters for their members.
So, again, why the secrecy at MHI? Why does MHI hide information that might persuade more to buy a manufactured home, or that might cause more local public officials to say YES to manufactured housing instead of NO. To probe those questions, see the report linked below.
HUD officials, in a reports linked above, here, and here made it clear that the solutions to the affordable housing crisis are well known. Manufactured homes are part of that solution.
It appears that transparent investigations and robust litigation – see two cases underway here and here – may be necessary to solve the affordable housing crisis.
It appears that investigations and litigation may be necessary to solve the affordable housing crisis. ##
Notice: the graphic below can be expanded to a larger size.
See the instructions below the graphic below or click the image and follow the prompts.
Manufactured Home Specific Shopping Insights and Tips
For those who want research on manufactured housing, which routinely debunks the common myths, see the report linked above.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News through the lens of manufactured homes and factory-built housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ### (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHLivingNews.com.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
Connect on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach
Recent and Related Reports:
The text/image boxes below are linked to other reports, which can be accessed by clicking on them.
