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The following report that cites sIan Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, is provided to MHLivingNews by the WND NewsCenter and the Daily Caller News Foundation. It is followed by additional information that is mobile and manufactured home living focused, with related resources, analysis and commentary in brief.
WND MONEY
Housing market is about to plunge off a cliff, economist says
‘Only people moving are those with no choice due to job or family’
By WND News Services
Published October 26, 2022 at 12:16pm
By John Hugh DeMastri
Daily Caller News Foundation
The price of residential homes could fall by as much as 20% next year off the back of mortgage rate hikes that are reducing demand, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
With mortgage rates at their highest level since 2002, current homeowners are unlikely to purchase a new property unless out of absolute necessity, said Shepherdson, according to CBS News. Housing prices were up 13% annually in August, down from 15.6% annually in July, the largest monthly decline in annual price growth in the more than 27-year history of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, S&P reported Tuesday.
“[W]e expect home sales to keep falling until early next year. By that point, sales will have fallen to the incompressible minimum level, where the only people moving home are those with no choice due to job or family circumstances,” said Shepherdson, according to CBS News. “Discretionary buyers are disappearing rapidly in the face of the near-400 [basis point] increase in rates over the past year.”
With mortgage rates at their highest level since 2002, current homeowners are unlikely to purchase a new property unless out of absolute necessity, said Shepherdson, according to CBS News. Housing prices were up 13% annually in August, down from 15.6% annually in July, the largest monthly decline in annual price growth in the more than 27-year history of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, S&P reported Tuesday.
Home price declines accelerate:
U.S. home prices over the three months ending in August declined 0.9% compared to the three months ending in July.
(Prices in the three months ended July had declined 0.3% from the three months ended June.) https://t.co/gku4X7QgIf pic.twitter.com/NAu5JFlH8j
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 25, 2022
Economists for investing giant Goldman Sachs predicted a more modest decline in housing prices of between 5% to 10%, according to an Oct. 6 report. Goldman economists noted that “the housing market is tight, mortgage quality is solid and a large proportion of the mortgages have a fixed rate.”
As of September, the median existing-home sales price hit $384,800, up 8.4% from $355,100 in September 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors. A 20% decline from this price would see the median existing-home sales price fall to $307,840.
Elevated mortgages contributed to a 38% annual decline in demand for new mortgages and an 86% annual decline in demand for refinancing as of the week ending Oct. 15. ##
The report above was originally published by the Daily Caller News Foundation. It was provided with permission by the WND NewsCenter to MHLivingNews.
Additional Information with More MHLivingNews Analysis and Commentary in Brief
Years of 3rd party research debunks the common misconceptions about modern manufactured homes. But that begs the question, why is it that this information is so little known? Hold that thought, but to see some of that third party research, click the articles linked below.
Any time someone is talking about the lack of affordable housing the stunning facts reported by two HUD PD&R researchers should be reviewed.
Manufactured housing is poised to advance to new heights. But it so not only now, but it has been for over 20 years. Two sources quoted below are just part of the evidence for that claim. One is Eric Belsky near the dawn of the 21st century. Belsky at the time was a research fellow for the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. More recently, William “Bill” Boor made a similar remark to Belksy’s during a Cavco Industries (CVCO) earnings call. Boor heads up that firm. He is the vice chairman of the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI). The current chairman of MHI, Leo Poggione of Craftsman Homes is essentially a subsidiary of Cavco. Those facts beg the question. What is it that explains the underperformance of manufactured housing in the 21st century?
Keep that question in mind.
Conventional housing has been steadily melting down in 2022. Manufactured homes, by contrast, has continued its modest rise. But why is the rise only modest instead of robust? In each of these reports, aspects of what is going wrong in MHVille are explored and revealed.
The Institue for Justice has been advocating and/or suing to obtain the rights of tiny house providers. Why isn’t the Manufactured Housing Institute also litigating for the rights of manufactured home providers and affordable housing seekers?
The report immediately above notes the ‘vanishing’ inventory of housing priced under $200,000. But modern manufactured homes can and are found that are often well under that price point. But that again begs the question, then why aren’t manufactured homes doing better? Why is MHI failing to educate the public and mainstream media day by day on the facts and evidence that favors manufactured housing? Aspects of the sobering answers to those questions are found in several of the reports that are linked. Despite all the fumbles (or worse) by MHI, at least the industry is still growing despite those issues. Meanwhile, an array of data reveals that conventional housing is steadily in retreat due to costs and higher interest rates.
Voices across the left-center-right spectrum are pointing one finger at the subtle to obvious problems caused by the steady consolidation or ‘monopolization’ of various sectors of the economy. Whatever one may think of Joe Biden, the insights (not the results) from the White House Fact Sheet found and unpacked in the report sheds light on not only the lack of affordable housing, but also about challenges in other industries too.
It is not just Biden that says monopolization is a problem. Donald Trump Jr, the 45th president of the United States’ (POTUS) son, told MHProNews that monopolization is the #2 or #3 issue facing America today.
The report immediately above notes the ‘vanishing’ inventory of housing priced under $200,000. But modern manufactured homes can and are found that are often well under that price point. But that again begs the question, then why aren’t manufactured homes doing better? Why is MHI failing to educate the public and mainstream media day by day on the facts and evidence that favors manufactured housing? Aspects of the sobering answers to those questions are found in several of the reports that are linked. Despite all the fumbles (or worse) by MHI, at least the industry is still growing despite those issues. Meanwhile, an array of data reveals that conventional housing is steadily in retreat due to costs and higher interest rates.
Voices across the left-center-right spectrum are pointing one finger at the subtle to obvious problems caused by the steady consolidation or ‘monopolization’ of various sectors of the economy. Whatever one may think of Joe Biden, the insights (not the results) from the White House Fact Sheet found and unpacked in the report sheds light on not only the lack of affordable housing, but also about challenges in other industries too.
As MHProNews/MHLivingNews has been saying for some time, there has been a long struggle in the U.S. over the power of monopolization. While the evidence suggests that Joe Biden’s White House is talking about, but not serious about, reigning in the power of the consolidators, Biden’s White House statement linked above on the threats and problems caused by consolidation are must reading. Spoiler alert: the case can be made, as noted, that Biden said the right things, but then fails to do the law enforcement that the facts demand.
To go back to the question above, what explains the lackluster – historically poorest results – for manufactured housing, during an affordable housing crisis? The sobering answer is found in a range of reports our twin and publicly accessible affordable manufactured housing websites.
We follow the facts, money trail, using evidence and reason to accuse the apparently guilty of corrupting the system. Or as several politicians from both major parties proclaimed – “The system is rigged.” There are good and honorable businesses in this profession, but there is obvious evidence of problematic if not illegal activities in manufactured housing too. But in fairness, manufactured housing is not alone in having corruption in it. Lifelong Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an attorney who is well connected due to his late uncle (popular and also controversial President John F. Kennedy (D) and the son of the also assassinated presidential candidate, former U.S. Attorney General and also Senator Robert “Bobby” Kennedy (NY-D). On 10.27.2022 only, there is free access to RFK Jr’s new documentary movie that everyone should watch. See the promo, facts, and teaser to the full documentary video linked here and reviewed and linked in the article linked below.
It is absolutely worth the time. While staying in the Democratic Party, RFK Jr is exposing the corruption in his party (and among “Establishment” or RINO Republicans too).
Only the unvarnished truth – and then prayerfully acting on that truth – will set us free.
https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/masthead/what-then-shall-we-say-in-response-to-these-things-if-god-is-for-us-who-can-be-against-us-by-god-if-we-can-do-it-you-can-too-anniversary-reflections-viewpoints-mhville/
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News through the lens of manufactured homes and factory-built housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHLivingNews.com.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
Connect on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach
Recent and Related Reports:
The text/image boxes below are linked to other reports, which can be accessed by clicking on them.
Celebrities, Millionaires, Billionaires and Their Appealing Manufactured Homes
Lifestyles of the Rich and Frugal: Manufactured Mansions Take Their Place in the California Sun
https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/urban-institute-the-role-of-manufactured-housing-in-increasing-the-supply-of-affordable-housing-in-the-u-s-a-unpacking-uis-deep-dive-into-manufactured-hom
